Written by Ernst van Biljon, Dean of Research, IMM Graduate School

Peak season is not won when the trucks start moving and the orders begin to surge. It is won in the weeks and months beforehand, when businesses still have time to identify their vulnerabilities, test their assumptions and put corrective measures in place.

For FMCG businesses, a simple 90–60–30 day framework provides a practical way of doing exactly that: 90 days to understand the reality, 60 days to test the response, and 30 days to lock in the operating playbook.

This approach moves peak-season planning away from simply forecasting volumes and securing additional transport capacity. Those remain essential, but they are only part of the challenge. The real question is whether a business understands where its costs and risks are concentrated, and whether it has actually tested its ability to respond when things go wrong.

Peak season is where FMCG logistics strategies are truly tested. Volumes increase sharply, promotional activity intensifies, transport capacity becomes constrained and the margin for error becomes smaller. For consumer brands, one poorly managed week can undermine months of careful planning and, ultimately, damage both profitability and customer relationships.

One of the biggest challenges is also one of the biggest blind spots: cost. FMCG businesses may have negotiated transport rates, but the rate card rarely represents the final cost of moving a product. Fuel charges, peak surcharges, dimensional or volumetric pricing, sudden increases in oil prices, residential and last-mile charges, address corrections and other accessorial fees can all add to the final bill.

This creates a dangerous disconnect. Businesses know that logistics costs are a major concern, but they may not have sufficient visibility into exactly where those costs are accumulating.

The answer is not simply to look at total logistics expenditure. FMCG businesses need to understand their true cost at SKU, customer, channel and lane level. A product that appears profitable when assessed against its selling price and basic transport rate may look very different once all logistics costs are allocated.

Importantly, these costs are rarely distributed evenly. They tend to concentrate around particular products, channels, geographies or transport arrangements. Identifying those pockets of leakage before peak season creates an opportunity to act rather than simply absorb the additional cost.

The second major issue is adaptability. Most businesses have some form of business continuity plan. The problem is that having a plan and being able to execute it are two quite different things.

A backup carrier may exist on paper but not be configured in the transport management system. An alternative distribution centre (DC) may have capacity but no established process for handling the additional volume. A contingency route may be known to management but never actually tested by the operational teams who would have to implement it.

Peak season is not the time to discover these gaps. The most effective approach is to test contingencies before they are needed. This does not necessarily require a major simulation. Moving a limited amount of volume from one carrier to another, testing an alternative fulfilment route or running a tabletop exercise around a DC outage can expose practical problems that would otherwise remain hidden.

The third consideration is that not every FMCG business has the same blind spots. A manufacturer may be primarily concerned with landed cost across different retail and e-commerce channels. A supermarket or retailer may be more exposed to demand uncertainty and the consequences of promotional activity. An online marketplace may be most concerned with the customer delivery experience, particularly where fulfilment is undertaken by third parties.

There is therefore no single peak-season logistics solution. Visibility and flexibility have to be designed around the specific role a business plays in the consumer supply chain.

The 90–60–30 framework provides a useful structure for doing this.

90 Days: Audit Reality

Three months before peak, businesses should stop looking primarily at forecasts and examine what actually happened during the previous one or two quarters.

Analyse shipments by SKU, customer, channel and lane. Compare quoted transport costs with actual invoiced costs and identify the sources of variance. Look specifically for recurring surcharges, inefficient packaging, problematic routes and customers or channels where logistics costs are disproportionately high.

The objective is to produce a ranked list of the biggest cost leaks and operational risks.

60 Days: Test the Plan

Two months before peak, it is time to move from analysis to action. Test at least one realistic disruption scenario. What happens if a key carrier runs out of capacity? What if a DC experiences an outage? What if a major retailer promotion produces an unexpected surge in demand?

Most importantly, establish who makes the decision, what systems need to change and how customers will be informed. A contingency plan that has never been exercised remains a theoretical plan.

30 Days: Lock It In

The final month should be about operational discipline rather than developing another elaborate strategy document. Carrier priorities, escalation procedures, service levels and cut-off times should be agreed. A simple weekly dashboard should track on-time performance, cost per shipment or case, surcharge incidence and emerging capacity constraints. The dashboard does not have to be complicated. Its purpose is to ensure that problems are identified while there is still time to act. 

Peak season is ultimately won before peak season begins. The organisations that perform best are not necessarily those with the most sophisticated logistics systems, but those that understand their vulnerabilities, test their assumptions and establish clear decision-making processes before volumes surge.

For FMCG businesses, the 90–60–30 approach provides a practical discipline: 90 days to understand the reality, 60 days to test the response, and 30 days to lock in the operating playbook.

The objective is not perfect preparation. It is to ensure that when peak season arrives, the organisation is responding to events rather than discovering its weaknesses for the first time.

The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport South Africa (CILTSA), in partnership with Commerce Edge and Alto Training, officially launched the fully funded CILT Level 5: International Diploma in Logistics and Transport programme on Monday, 6 July 2026. The launch took place at the IMM Graduate School Conference Centre in Parktown and marked the start of an important professional development journey for women working in logistics, transport, warehousing, operations and supply chain environments. 

The programme, funded by the Transport Education and Training Authority (TETA), is designed to strengthen operational, management and leadership capability among women in the sector. “It offers participants access to internationally recognised learning, practical workplace-based experience, mentorship support and a professional designation pathway through CILTSA,” explains Catherine Larkin, CILTSA’s Executive Director. 

The launch was well attended, with 10 Gauteng-based candidates participating in person and additional candidates joining online from across the country, including the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. Three mentors also attended the session in person, demonstrating the strong support structure that will underpin the learning journey.  

Representatives from TETA were present, reinforcing the funder’s commitment to skills development, transformation and the advancement of women in the logistics and transport industry. 

Commerce Edge, the programme provider, will deliver the learning components of the qualification, while Alto Training serves as the project management company responsible for coordinating and supporting programme implementation and TETA processes. Together with CILTSA, these partners will help ensure that candidates are guided through a structured programme that combines online contact learning sessions, workplace experiential learning, practical assignments, logbook completion, coaching and evidence gathering. 

Running from July 2026 to July 2027, the programme covers key areas including Management in Logistics and Transport, Supply Chain Management, Transport Operations and Warehousing. Through these internationally recognised units, candidates will build practical knowledge and leadership competence that can be applied directly in the workplace. 

“The launch highlighted the value of collaboration between professional bodies, funders, training providers, employers and mentors in creating meaningful opportunities for women,” concludes Larkin. “As the candidates begin their learning journey, the programme stands as a significant investment in professional growth, industry transformation and the development of future leaders in logistics and transport.” 

Investing in women. Developing industry. Building the future. 

As disruption becomes part of the normal operating environment, Jaimé Manuel of Unitrans considers why resilient African supply chains will depend on clearer processes, stronger partnerships and solutions designed for local realities. 

For years, supply chains were judged largely by how efficiently they could move goods, reduce cost and maximise output. But in an operating environment shaped by persistent disruption, changing customer expectations and increasingly interconnected value chains, efficiency alone is no longer enough. 

That was one of the clearest reflections I took from SAPICS 2026. Its theme, “Legacy to Leadership: 60 Years of Connection, Collaboration & Transformation”, invited the industry to consider not only how far supply chains have come, but what leadership now requires of us. I believe it requires a shift away from static models and isolated decisions to adaptability and collective problem-solving. 

Jaimé Manuel Executive Growth at Unitrans

Disruption is now the norm for supply chains, which face infrastructure, regulatory, climate, and technological challenges. The task is not to design a system that never experiences disruption, but to build the capability to respond when conditions change. 

This shifts competitive advantage, as it now depends on whether an organisation can see change early, bring the right capabilities together and adjust its operating model without compromising safety, service or control. 

Stronger Supply Chains Require Clearer Roles 

A recurring idea at SAPICS was the need for organisations to become more deliberate about their core competencies. Delivering an end-to-end outcome does not require one organisation to perform every component independently. It requires the lead partner to integrate the right internal expertise and specialist capabilities, establish clear accountability and keep the customer’s operational outcome at the centre. 

It’s better to start by understanding where an organisation creates the most value, where specialist capability is required and how the right partners can be brought together around a defined customer need. 

This is particularly important in complex African supply chains. A logistics provider, customer, technology business, equipment manufacturer and local operating team may each understand a different part of the challenge and bring a different capability to solving it. None has the complete answer in isolation. The value lies in creating an effective interface between those capabilities, supported by shared accountability and a clear outcome. 

Collaboration requires greater visibility across the value chain and a willingness to share relevant information to support decisions, while protecting commercially-sensitive information. 

The real test of a partnership is whether it helps solve the customer’s actual problem. A challenge that initially appears to be about transport or technology may have its roots in an inefficient process, a safety constraint, limited connectivity or an operating practice that no longer serves the customer. Listening and defining the problem correctly must come first. 

Technology Cannot Repair a Broken Process 

Technology was understandably prominent in many of the conversations at SAPICS, but its value depends on whether the operation is ready to use it effectively. 

Before introducing another platform/application, businesses must understand and simplify the underlying process. Who performs each task? What information do they require? Where are delays/errors introduced? How will the user’s role change? What governance is needed when the system identifies an exception? Without those foundations, digitisation adds complexity instead of reducing it. 

The same applies to mobile devices, which must be integrated into operations to deliver value. Human judgement remains essential. Technology can improve visibility, identify patterns and automate routine decisions, but people must interpret, manage exceptions, and ensure technology is useful. 

Practical Improvement Starts at the Frontline 

A Unitrans agricultural operation provides a practical example. In remote sugarcane environments, manual field inspections and connectivity constraints made it difficult to capture and share information consistently. 

Unitrans worked with a specialist technology partner to digitise the existing inspection process through a custom mobile application. This meant that operational teams could record field conditions, identify hazards and make more informed decisions before vehicles entered an area.

The real value was in operational knowledge, not just the app. This approach improved decision speed and safety, reducing in-field rollovers.

The example shows why adoption matters. Technology creates value when it strengthens frontline expertise rather than replacing it. When employees see that a tool helps them work more safely and effectively, compliance becomes curiosity – and operational teams begin driving improvement themselves.

Continuous improvement is rarely one dramatic intervention. More often, it comes from questioning existing practices and using data to make targeted changes.

African Solutions Must Reflect African Conditions 

Common principles can be applied across a supply chain network, but implementation cannot be one-size-fits-all. African countries and operating environments differ in infrastructure, regulation, language, culture, connectivity, road conditions, skills and customer requirements. A solution that works in one market may not in another. 

This requires closer collaboration with all stakeholders and a realistic view of what operations can support now and in the future. The next era of supply chain leadership will be defined by how well leaders connect people, processes, information and expertise around real operational needs. 

While efficiency will remain fundamental, the supply chains best equipped to grow will be those that can adapt without losing control, share information without losing accountability, and collaborate without losing sight of their own strengths. 

In practical terms, leaders must clarify the outcome, map the process, identify where specialist expertise is needed and assign someone to be accountable for each decision. Technology should then be introduced against that operating model, with frontline users involved early enough to shape how it works in practice.

The greatest opportunity lies in building collective capability to solve problems, together.