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WINNING PEAK SEASON IN FMCG LOGISTICS: THE 90–60–30 DAY PLAYBOOK

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Close up shot of a trolley in a bustling supermarket

Written by Ernst van Biljon, Dean of Research, IMM Graduate School

Peak season is not won when the trucks start moving and the orders begin to surge. It is won in the weeks and months beforehand, when businesses still have time to identify their vulnerabilities, test their assumptions and put corrective measures in place.

For FMCG businesses, a simple 90–60–30 day framework provides a practical way of doing exactly that: 90 days to understand the reality, 60 days to test the response, and 30 days to lock in the operating playbook.

This approach moves peak-season planning away from simply forecasting volumes and securing additional transport capacity. Those remain essential, but they are only part of the challenge. The real question is whether a business understands where its costs and risks are concentrated, and whether it has actually tested its ability to respond when things go wrong.

Peak season is where FMCG logistics strategies are truly tested. Volumes increase sharply, promotional activity intensifies, transport capacity becomes constrained and the margin for error becomes smaller. For consumer brands, one poorly managed week can undermine months of careful planning and, ultimately, damage both profitability and customer relationships.

One of the biggest challenges is also one of the biggest blind spots: cost. FMCG businesses may have negotiated transport rates, but the rate card rarely represents the final cost of moving a product. Fuel charges, peak surcharges, dimensional or volumetric pricing, sudden increases in oil prices, residential and last-mile charges, address corrections and other accessorial fees can all add to the final bill.

This creates a dangerous disconnect. Businesses know that logistics costs are a major concern, but they may not have sufficient visibility into exactly where those costs are accumulating.

The answer is not simply to look at total logistics expenditure. FMCG businesses need to understand their true cost at SKU, customer, channel and lane level. A product that appears profitable when assessed against its selling price and basic transport rate may look very different once all logistics costs are allocated.

Importantly, these costs are rarely distributed evenly. They tend to concentrate around particular products, channels, geographies or transport arrangements. Identifying those pockets of leakage before peak season creates an opportunity to act rather than simply absorb the additional cost.

The second major issue is adaptability. Most businesses have some form of business continuity plan. The problem is that having a plan and being able to execute it are two quite different things.

A backup carrier may exist on paper but not be configured in the transport management system. An alternative distribution centre (DC) may have capacity but no established process for handling the additional volume. A contingency route may be known to management but never actually tested by the operational teams who would have to implement it.

Peak season is not the time to discover these gaps. The most effective approach is to test contingencies before they are needed. This does not necessarily require a major simulation. Moving a limited amount of volume from one carrier to another, testing an alternative fulfilment route or running a tabletop exercise around a DC outage can expose practical problems that would otherwise remain hidden.

The third consideration is that not every FMCG business has the same blind spots. A manufacturer may be primarily concerned with landed cost across different retail and e-commerce channels. A supermarket or retailer may be more exposed to demand uncertainty and the consequences of promotional activity. An online marketplace may be most concerned with the customer delivery experience, particularly where fulfilment is undertaken by third parties.

There is therefore no single peak-season logistics solution. Visibility and flexibility have to be designed around the specific role a business plays in the consumer supply chain.

The 90–60–30 framework provides a useful structure for doing this.

90 Days: Audit Reality

Three months before peak, businesses should stop looking primarily at forecasts and examine what actually happened during the previous one or two quarters.

Analyse shipments by SKU, customer, channel and lane. Compare quoted transport costs with actual invoiced costs and identify the sources of variance. Look specifically for recurring surcharges, inefficient packaging, problematic routes and customers or channels where logistics costs are disproportionately high.

The objective is to produce a ranked list of the biggest cost leaks and operational risks.

60 Days: Test the Plan

Two months before peak, it is time to move from analysis to action. Test at least one realistic disruption scenario. What happens if a key carrier runs out of capacity? What if a DC experiences an outage? What if a major retailer promotion produces an unexpected surge in demand?

Most importantly, establish who makes the decision, what systems need to change and how customers will be informed. A contingency plan that has never been exercised remains a theoretical plan.

30 Days: Lock It In

The final month should be about operational discipline rather than developing another elaborate strategy document. Carrier priorities, escalation procedures, service levels and cut-off times should be agreed. A simple weekly dashboard should track on-time performance, cost per shipment or case, surcharge incidence and emerging capacity constraints. The dashboard does not have to be complicated. Its purpose is to ensure that problems are identified while there is still time to act. 

Peak season is ultimately won before peak season begins. The organisations that perform best are not necessarily those with the most sophisticated logistics systems, but those that understand their vulnerabilities, test their assumptions and establish clear decision-making processes before volumes surge.

For FMCG businesses, the 90–60–30 approach provides a practical discipline: 90 days to understand the reality, 60 days to test the response, and 30 days to lock in the operating playbook.

The objective is not perfect preparation. It is to ensure that when peak season arrives, the organisation is responding to events rather than discovering its weaknesses for the first time.

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Logistics

Transport Month Begins With South Africa’s Freight Network Under the Spotlight

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Train station platform at the International Airport Johannesburg

South Africa’s annual Transport Month begins on 1 October, putting the country’s roads, railways, ports and public transport systems back in the spotlight.

The 2026 campaign is being held under the theme “Building a safe, sustainable, reliable and affordable transport system”, with the Department of Transport highlighting the sector’s contribution to social development and economic growth. The campaign comes as South Africa continues to work through major reforms across its transport and freight networks.

For the freight industry, the timing is significant.

South Africa is in the middle of efforts to reform its logistics system, increase private-sector participation in rail and ports, and improve the infrastructure connecting producers with domestic and international markets.

Transport Month therefore arrives with plenty for the industry to watch.

Freight is a Network, Not a Single Mode

South Africa’s freight system stretches across roads, rail, ports, pipelines, airports and intermodal facilities.

The National Freight Databank tracks these different parts of the system across 16 national freight corridors, providing information on infrastructure, freight volumes, commodities and the origins and destinations of cargo.

That interconnectedness matters because a weakness in one part of the network can create problems elsewhere.

A manufacturer may have sufficient production capacity, for example, but still face delays if freight cannot reach a port reliably. An exporter may have international demand for its product but struggle with the inland journey between a mine, farm or factory and the export terminal.

The efficiency of the supply chain ultimately depends on how well these individual links work together.

Rail Reform Remains a Major Priority

Rail is likely to remain one of the biggest areas of focus during this year’s Transport Month.

South Africa is opening its freight rail network to private operators as part of the broader logistics reform programme. The government has identified private-sector participation in rail and ports as an important part of efforts to improve the performance and competitiveness of the freight system.

Several projects are being developed under this approach, including the Ngqura Manganese Export Corridor, Richards Bay Dry Bulk Terminal and the Container Corridor between Gauteng and eThekwini.

Transport Minister Barbara Creecy has positioned these projects within the government’s wider logistics reform programme, which aims to improve the performance of South Africa’s freight system and attract private investment into critical transport infrastructure, as outlined by the Department of Transport.

The objective is not simply to put more trains on the tracks.

The bigger challenge is creating a freight network with enough capacity and reliability for businesses to make rail a dependable part of their logistics planning.

Roads Remain Critical

Rail reform does not make the road network less important.

Road freight continues to connect factories, warehouses, farms, distribution centres, ports and customers across the country. Trucks also provide the first- and last-mile connections that rail cannot always provide.

That makes road maintenance, congestion management and road safety important supply-chain issues in their own right.

Johannesburg is putting some of these challenges at the centre of its own Transport Month campaign. The City of Johannesburg has identified reducing traffic congestion, repairing road infrastructure and improving transport reliability among its priorities, alongside initiatives focused on road safety and public transport.

The City is also using the campaign to promote greater public-private cooperation, with projects involving its transport entities, PRASA, Gauteng Provincial Government, public transport operators and other partners.

These projects may not directly move freight, but they form part of the urban transport environment in which commercial vehicles, workers and deliveries operate.

Ports Remain Critical to the Export Chain

The pressure on South Africa’s ports also makes transport reform particularly important for exporters.

Government has identified improved port infrastructure and greater private-sector participation as part of its broader logistics strategy. The Durban Container Terminal Pier 2 concession, for example, has brought private-sector involvement into one of the country’s most important container gateways.

For exporters, the issue is ultimately straightforward: getting goods to a port is only useful if those goods can then move through the terminal efficiently.

This is why road, rail and port reforms cannot be treated as separate projects. The performance of an export corridor depends on the connections between them.

What Should the Industry Watch?

Transport Month provides a useful opportunity to look at whether South Africa’s reforms are beginning to translate into measurable improvements.

For freight operators, that means watching rail capacity, road conditions, port performance and the development of alternative logistics options.

For manufacturers and exporters, the focus will be on whether these changes reduce delays and make transport costs and delivery times more predictable.

And for government, the challenge is turning infrastructure investment and policy reform into a transport system that businesses can actually rely on.

South Africa already has an extensive transport network. The bigger challenge is making its different parts work together more effectively.

As Transport Month gets underway, that may be the most important measure of progress: not simply how much infrastructure is being built, but whether the network is becoming easier to depend on.

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The Distribution Gap Holding Back South Africa’s Township Economy

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Landscape shot of a Capetonian township.

South Africa’s township economy is not only facing a demand problem. For many businesses, the bigger challenge may be getting the right products to the right place at a competitive price.

The 2026 Rural and Township Economy Report highlights significant procurement and distribution challenges facing businesses outside the country’s major commercial centres. According to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (the dtic), informal businesses face higher procurement costs and limited access to formal distribution channels, while consumers can face higher effective prices because of limited product variety and quality.

For the supply-chain industry, this points to a problem that sits further upstream than the shop itself.

If a business cannot source products reliably, competitively and in sufficient volume, its ability to compete is constrained before the customer even walks through the door.

The Cost of Getting Stock

Procurement is one of the clearest pressure points.

The Competition Commission’s Rural and Township Economy Project identifies constraints in how township and rural businesses source and sell goods, with smaller businesses facing challenges that can prevent them from scaling and integrating more fully into broader value chains.

The issue is partly one of scale.

A small retailer buying limited quantities does not necessarily have the same purchasing power as a larger chain. That can affect the prices it pays, the range of products it can stock and how frequently it can replenish inventory.

The result is a cycle where scale becomes an advantage not only for retailers, but for businesses further up the supply chain as well.

A business that pays more for stock has less room to compete on price. If it cannot reliably obtain popular products, it also risks losing customers to businesses that can.

Distribution Determines What is Available

Price is only one part of the problem.

Stock availability matters just as much.

The dtic has identified stock availability as a key challenge for township businesses, noting that consumers are less likely to return when products are out of stock. The department has also highlighted the need for better supply-chain management and point-of-sale technology to improve the customer experience.

That changes how the distribution problem should be viewed.

A product sitting in a national warehouse does not necessarily help a consumer in a township. It still needs to move through the right wholesale or distribution channel, reach the local business at the right time and be available when the customer wants it.

This final connection can be easy to overlook when supply chains are designed primarily around large formal retailers.

The Route to Market Matters Too

The challenge also works in the other direction.

Many township businesses are heavily dependent on their immediate local customer base, limiting their ability to reach larger markets.

That creates a similar problem for producers and manufacturers. A business may have a product that could sell beyond its immediate area, but reaching those customers requires access to distribution, retail and digital channels that may not be readily available.

The supply chain therefore affects both sides of the market: how businesses get products in and how they get products out.

That is particularly important if South Africa wants township enterprises to become more integrated into broader manufacturing and distribution networks rather than remaining largely localised.

Could Aggregation Help?

One potential way to address the scale problem is through greater purchasing power.

In a recent address to women entrepreneurs, Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Zuko Godlimpi encouraged township businesses to form partnerships and cooperatives so they can buy and sell in greater volumes.

The logic is straightforward. If smaller businesses can aggregate their demand, they may be able to access some of the purchasing advantages normally associated with larger buyers.

Government has already incorporated this principle into support for township community convenience stores. The dtic’s Spaza Shop Support Fund includes support for stock procurement and delivery, while the department has said the programme is intended to strengthen links between spaza shops, local manufacturers, black industrialists and wholesalers through bulk purchasing arrangements.

But aggregation still needs infrastructure behind it.

Someone has to consolidate orders, manage inventory, arrange transport, handle storage and distribute stock. Without those capabilities, simply combining purchasing power will not solve the wider distribution problem.

Closing the Distribution Gap

South Africa has no shortage of entrepreneurial activity in its townships. The challenge is making it easier for those businesses to participate in supply chains that extend beyond their immediate surroundings.

That means looking beyond the individual retailer.

Better wholesale networks, more efficient distribution channels, technology that improves stock visibility and logistics models designed around smaller businesses could all help reduce some of the disadvantages created by limited scale.

It also means recognising that access to a product is not the same as access to a supply chain.

A township retailer may technically be able to buy a product, but if it pays more, receives inconsistent supply or has limited access to alternative suppliers, it is competing from a weaker position.

The 2026 Rural and Township Economy Report makes clear that procurement, stock availability and access to distribution remain important barriers for many smaller businesses.

Closing that gap will therefore require more than encouraging businesses to grow. It will require supply chains that allow them to buy competitively, maintain reliable stock and reach more customers.

For South Africa’s township economy, better distribution could be one of the practical ways to turn local business activity into businesses that can genuinely scale.

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Logistics

Opinion Piece: Transparency is Becoming the New Competitive Advantage in Workforce Logistics

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Female warehouse worker using a laptop with an AI tool running the logistics of the warehouse.

By Maureen Phiri, Director at Oxyon People Solutions

In the past, the logistics of workforce management have tended to happen behind the scenes. Clients saw the end result of staff arriving on site, projects being delivered, and operational requirements being met, but the processes that made it possible were mostly invisible. However, this approach is now beginning to change, thanks to Artificial Intelligence (AI) becoming more integrated into workforce management.

Workforce providers can now give their clients greater visibility into the processes behind staffing. This means that clients have a better understanding of workforce readiness, compliance, and operational performance, which in turn allows them to make faster, more informed decisions. For workforce providers, this means that administrative functions can become strategic assets that strengthen collaboration, build trust, and create greater value for clients.

AI is Connecting the Workforce Journey

Clients are looking for increased transparency when it comes to their outsourced staffing processes. For workforce providers to be able to do this, they need to bring together information from across the workforce lifecycle. Previously, this would have been a labour-intensive task, but AI makes it much quicker and easier to collate information from across separate systems like recruitment, onboarding, compliance, and workforce management.

Connecting these functions allows workforce providers to have a much clearer view of workforce readiness and allows them to share relevant information with clients in real time. This means that instead of waiting for reports or updates, clients can see where people are in the recruitment or onboarding process at any time. It also helps them to  understand whether compliance requirements have been met, and identify any potential issues in the process.

This changes the role of workforce logistics, because the information that was previously only used to support internal operations can become a competitive advantage. With AI behind the scenes, this information can help clients plan more effectively, respond more quickly, and work more closely with their workforce partners.

Making the Back Office Visible

Take onboarding as an example. Traditionally, clients would only become involved in the process once a worker was ready to start, but using AI means that workforce providers can give their clients visibility throughout the process. This means that clients can see how onboarding is progressing as it happens, and any problems that might cause delays can be identified and dealt with early.

The same applies to compliance. With visibility throughout the recruitment processes, clients can easily see whether compliance requirements are being met, rather than only being notified when a problem occurs. This reduces risk, because issues can be handled before they can have a negative effect on client operations.

When it comes to workforce administration, the benefits are similar. Having real-time visibility into information that used to only be used internally at a workforce provider means that clients are more informed and can make better operational decisions.

More Transparency Builds Stronger Partnerships

Better visibility helps to improve reporting, but it can also change the relationship between workforce providers and their clients. If workforce providers give their clients ongoing access to more information, the whole process becomes more proactive. Problems can be identified quickly and decisions can be made faster. Added to this,  both clients and workforce providers can understand the workforce journey better, as it happens. 

It is important, however, to remember that responsible data management is essential. Giving clients more visibility into workforce processes does not mean providing unrestricted access to personal employee information. AI should help organisations share the information clients need to make better business decisions, but it should also be used to make sure that personal employee data is always protected.

Clients and workforce providers also need to remember that technology should never replace human judgement. AI can process information quickly and can identify potential problems, but any decisions about recruitment, onboarding, and workforce management must still be made by people who can use their experience to consider the circumstances and take responsibility for the outcome.

The Future of Workforce Logistics

AI is increasingly becoming part of workforce management, but the real value of these tools is not just in automating administrative tasks. If workforce providers can use AI to make workforce processes more transparent, they can give their clients better visibility into the information that supports operational decisions, including onboarding and compliance. This is fast becoming a competitive advantage that helps workforce providers strengthen client relationships, support better decision-making, and demonstrate the value of their expertise.

Maureen Phiri, Director at Oxyon People Solutions.

Maureen Phiri, Director at Oxyon People Solutions

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