South Africa’s online retail market is growing at around 22.5% this year. For retailers heading into Black Friday and the festive season, there is a fairly obvious question behind that number: what happens if your business suddenly has to process, pack and deliver 20% more orders?

It is a question Sahil Affriya, founder and CEO of multi-courier logistics platform Shiprazor, believes retailers should be answering now, rather than in November.

The newly released Online Retail in South Africa 2026 report, produced by World Wide Worx in partnership with Mastercard, Peach Payments and Ask Afrika, and supported by Shiprazor, forecasts that South Africa’s online retail market will reach R159 billion in 2026.

On a turnover-weighted basis, the market is expanding at approximately 22.5% this year, between five and ten times the rate of physical retail. The report also shows just how much bigger the market has become: online retail is expected to add more turnover during 2026 alone than the entire South African online retail market generated in 2020.

That is good news for ecommerce. But growth at that pace has consequences.

More orders mean more pressure on stock systems, warehouses, customer-service teams, courier capacity and returns. And with retailers typically reluctant to make significant changes to business-critical technology once peak trading begins, the window to find and fix weaknesses is getting smaller.

“Twenty-two percent growth sounds fantastic until you start thinking about what it means on a busy Monday morning in November,” says Affriya. “If there are suddenly hundreds more orders sitting in your system, can your warehouse get them out? Can your courier partners absorb the volume? And, importantly, can you see quickly enough when something has gone wrong?”

Affriya says retailers don’t need to predict their exact Black Friday volumes. They do need to know where their operation starts to strain, and have a plan for absorbing additional orders when demand moves beyond expectations.

He suggests focusing on a few practical areas before peak-season systems are locked down.

Prepare for Unpredictable Order Volumes

Testing whether a website can handle increased traffic is only one part of peak-season preparation. Retailers should put the entire order journey under pressure, from checkout and stock allocation through to picking, packing, dispatch and delivery. Testing different order volumes can show where delays or manual work start creeping in, giving teams time to address those pressure points before peak demand arrives.

“Don’t just test whether someone can buy from you, test whether you can actually fulfil what you’ve sold,” says Affriya.

Build the Right Courier Mix

Retailers should understand how much additional volume their delivery and fulfilment partners can accommodate, particularly on their busiest routes and trading days. That also means looking at the mix of courier partners available and understanding which are best suited to different delivery areas, service requirements, costs and order volumes.

They should also know what happens when things don’t go according to plan. If one delivery option becomes constrained, is there another available? How quickly can orders be moved? Who makes that decision?

“Peak season exposes dependencies that are easy to ignore during normal trading,” says Affriya. “If your delivery operation relies heavily on one provider or one process, you want to know where that risk sits before volumes spike.”

Keep Shipping Costs Under Control

Higher order volumes don’t automatically translate into better margins if fulfilment and delivery costs rise with them. Retailers should understand what they are spending to fulfil and deliver each order, and where unnecessary costs start appearing as volumes increase.

That includes looking beyond headline courier rates to factors such as delivery area, service level, failed delivery attempts and the cost of moving orders between providers when capacity becomes constrained. Having multiple delivery options gives retailers more room to balance cost, capacity and service during peak periods.

Find aqnd Reduce Fulfilment Bottlenecks

A retailer may have enough website capacity to handle twice its usual traffic while its warehouse can only comfortably process 20% more orders. Another may have warehouse capacity but run into courier collection limits.

Affriya recommends retailers model what happens if order volumes increase by 20%, 30% and even 50% over a short period, then use those scenarios to identify where additional capacity, alternative processes or courier options may be needed.

“You are not trying to predict the future perfectly. You are looking for the point where something breaks, so you can fix it before peak season.”

Spot Problems Early Enough to Act

When thousands of orders are moving through an operation, problems are inevitable. The bigger issue is how long it takes the retailer to spot them.

Teams should be able to see orders that haven’t left the warehouse, missed collections, parcels that have stopped moving and failed delivery attempts without waiting for a customer to complain. The earlier those exceptions are visible, the more opportunity there is to reroute an order, change delivery options or intervene before the problem reaches the customer.

That matters because the delivery is ultimately the part of an online transaction that happens in the customer’s world.

“The customer doesn’t care which system failed or which courier had a capacity problem,” says Affriya. “They bought from the retailer. That’s the brand they associate with the experience.”

South Africa’s online retail market has now reached a point where rapid growth is taking place on top of an already substantial base. For Affriya, that makes peak-season preparation less about preparing for one unusually busy weekend and more about building an operation that can absorb higher volumes without service levels slipping or fulfilment and delivery costs eroding the value of that growth.

“Growth is what every retailer wants,” he says. “The question is whether the rest of the business is ready when it arrives.”

Transport reform, regional trade, safer freight corridors and workforce development will take centre stage at the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT) Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe Regional Conference at Automechanika Johannesburg on 28 and 29 October 2026.

Taking place at Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand, the conference will explore the theme “Driving Innovation: Bridging Borders for an African Future”. Its programme brings together perspectives from government, industry, professional bodies and education to examine the transport, logistics and supply chain challenges shaping regional connectivity.

With Tiro Rapoo of NEXT Gen – an interest group of CILT – as programme director, the discussions will focus on how infrastructure, regulation, technology and skills can support a more connected African transport landscape, with an emphasis on practical regional challenges. Four panels will address transport corridors, cross-border harmonisation, safety and security, and education and training.

Tiro Rapoo of NEXT Gen

“By focusing on critical corridors, standardisation, safety, and future-ready skills, the programme is structured to deliver actionable solutions that help move goods and people across our borders more efficiently and securely,” says Elvin Harris, President of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport South Africa (CILTSA).

Elvin Harris, President of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport South Africa (CILTSA).

Connecting Corridors and Aligning Systems

Lwazi Mboyi, CEO of the Cross-Border Road Transport Agency (C-BRTA), will address enabling cross-border road transport in Africa. Aneeqah Meyer, Manager at Ernst & Young Advisory Services, will examine economic integration, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the future of African trade.

Lwazi Mboyi, CEO of the Cross-Border Road Transport Agency (C-BRTA)

Aneeqah Meyer, Manager at Ernst & Young Advisory Services

The transport corridors panel will feature Crynos Mutendera, Senior Research Specialist at C-BRTA and Lebo Letsoalo, founder of the African Women in Supply Chain Association (AWISCA) and Sincpoint. Discussions will cover strategic road and rail corridors, reducing border delays and non-tariff barriers, and lessons from one-stop border posts. Infrastructure financing, the contribution of dry ports and inland terminals, and links between corridor development and regional industrialisation will also feature.

Crynos Mutendera, Senior Research Specialist at C-BRTA

Lebo Letsoalo, founder of the African Women in Supply Chain Association (AWISCA)

The harmonisation panel will include Jonathan McDonald, Vice Chairman of the SA Freight and Logistics Association (SAFLA), and Prisca Mayumbelo CMILT, Chairperson of CILT Namibia and a transport and urban mobility specialist. Topics include vehicle standards, customs documentation, trade facilitation systems and mutual recognition of licences, permits and professional qualifications.

Prisca Mayumbelo CMILT

“By uniting Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe at Automechanika Johannesburg, we are turning policy aspirations into operational realities that will accelerate trade efficiency along our shared economic corridors,” states Mayumbelo.

Safer Operations and a Future-Ready Workforce

Day two will bring a regional perspective from Dr Tapiwa Mujakachi, President of CILT Zimbabwe, followed by a keynote on generative engine optimisation from Francois Vorster, Chief Disruptor at IMS.

Dr Tapiwa Mujakachi, President of CILT Zimbabwe

Dr Mujakachi emphasises the collective purpose driving regional collaboration. “This three-way partnership demonstrates that our logistical challenges and economic destinies are deeply interconnected. Bringing our institutions and practitioners together allows us to co-create practical solutions that lower the cost of doing business and build corridor resilience for our shared future.”

The safety and security panel will include Gavin Kelly, CEO of the Road Freight Association (RFA) and Gerhard van Zyl, Group Operations Director at Professional Risk and Asset Management.

Gavin Kelly, CEO of the Road Freight Association (RFA)

Gerhard van Zyl, Group Operations Director at Professional Risk and Asset Management.

The education, training and skills panel will feature Maphefo Ano Frempong, CEO of the Transport Education Training Authority (TETA); Anton Fiets, Executive: Industry Development at the Automotive Industry Development Centre (AIDC); Professor Chengedzai Mafini, Executive Dean at Vaal University of Technology; Ronald Mlalazi, CEO of Commerce Edge; and Sandile Khoza, CEO of COSA Holdings and CILTSA Council member.

Sandile Khoza, CEO of COSA Holdings and CILTSA Council member

Professor Chengedzai Mafini, Executive Dean at Vaal University of Technology

Ronald Mlalazi, CEO of Commerce Edge

Formal sessions will be followed by lunch and dedicated opportunities to visit the Automechanika exhibition and network with exhibitors.

For more information about the conference or to register, visit: https://www.ciltsa.events/cilt-conference-at-automechanika-johannesburg/

By Andrew Pike, Head of Ports, Rail and Logistics and Lena Mangondo, Executive, Bowmans

Cabinet has just announced that Transnet National Port Authority (TNPA), the landlord port authority for South Africa’s eight ports, is to be corporatised as soon as possible. What this means is that TNPA will be removed as an operating division from the stable of Transnet SOC Ltd and will become a stand-alone state-owned corporation, completely independent of Transnet. Arguably, this is the biggest single port structural reform initiative since the passing of the National Ports Act (NPA) in 2005.

This action is not happening before time: The NPA itself envisaged Transnet being corporatised in a two-stage process, which was supposed to commence “as soon as this Act takes effect”. In other words, this reform has been delayed by over 20 years. What was envisaged in the NPA was that TNPA would initially become a subsidiary of Transnet and only later might become a state-owned corporation, completely independent of Transnet. This was the scenario painted by the President in 2021, but it appears that a decision has been taken to bypass the first step and simply move TNPA right out of Transnet’s influence. This is a welcome move and makes complete sense.

There are some compelling reasons for this initiative, chief among them being the critical need for TNPA’s operational independence. Currently, the biggest single terminal operator in South Africa is Transnet Port Terminals (TPT), a sister operating division of TNPA, which also sits within Transnet. This structural arrangement has long undermined market confidence: TNPA, which is responsible for awarding concessions and other port agreements, is completely conflicted when considering any tender for a port concession in which TPT is one of the bidders.

Similarly, TNPA is also (at least theoretically) required by the NPA to regulate terminal operator tariffs, yet would face an obvious conflict of interest if required to regulate TPT tariffs. By moving TNPA out of Transnet, this reform decisively resolves the “player–referee” conundrum that has raised suspicion amongst some sector participants. TNPA will now be positioned to operate as a truly independent authority, capable of awarding concessions and overseeing port operations on a level playing field where all market participants – including TPT – are treated equally. (Tariffs will in any event probably be regulated separately by the new single Transport Economic Regulator.) This structural separation is essential to instilling market confidence and ensuring that private sector operators can compete for port opportunities confident that the process is fair and free from institutional bias.

One of the other challenges within the incumbent structure is that TNPA, which is understood to be a profitable business, has to share its revenue with the wider Transnet Group. This effective cross-subsidisation has constrained TNPA’s cash flow and limited its ability to apply revenue exclusively to port upgrades and other initiatives that enhance the port system. As a stand-alone SOC, TNPA will benefit from greater transparency over its revenue streams and will be able to invest directly in much-needed port infrastructure. Equally important, this financial independence will support the move toward cost-reflective port user charges, ensuring that tariffs are set based on the actual costs of providing port services rather than cross-subsidising other business units within the Transnet Group.

The separation of TNPA is subject to several principles set by Cabinet, which include fair compensation for Transnet, long-term financial sustainability, fair allocation of liabilities between the Transnet Group and TNPA, protection of employees and customers, keeping strategic state ownership and control of national ports infrastructure and better investment capability and infrastructure development.

Cabinet has recommended that, as part of the reform, TNPA should partner with a Development Funding Institute (DFI). Once again, this will be significant. There are huge cash demands on the Transnet Group generally and TNPA in particular. For instance, TNPA has a planned berth deepening project in Durban which will require massive investment. Bringing in an equity partner will help TNPA to raise necessary funding for its various port projects around the country. A DFI should also be able to raise funds for TNPA at far more attractive interest rates. Further benefits of a DFI shareholder would include strong governance structures and project management skills.

Overall, the initiative is both welcome and exciting, but the implementation is not going to happen overnight. Leaving aside the valuation of the business and agreement on how Transnet will be compensated, one must bear in mind that all port agreements, whilst notionally with TNPA, are legally with Transnet. Accordingly, if TNPA is to continue as the Regulator and Landlord Port Authority, all of those agreements have to be transferred with the assets and rest of the business from Transnet to TNPA. This will, of course, require the agreement of counterparties, including for instance, funders who have concluded funding agreements with Transnet. These funders will want to ensure that such reform and the introduction of a DFI will not trigger any negative loan covenants and that both Transnet and TNPA will be capable of meeting their loan repayment obligations under the financing agreements. Lessons can be learnt in respect of the recent restructure of Eskom Holdings and the National Transmission Company.

Concessionaires will be looking closely at TNPA to determine whether it can meet potential obligations under existing port agreements which are currently carried by Transnet. It is no secret that the latter itself carries significant debt, so one might expect a review of Transnet’s financing agreements for disposal, change-of-control and negative-pledge provisions, followed by requests for lender consents or waivers and a renegotiation of the guarantee terms. There will of course be a number of other issues to address, including the employee transfer process.

None of this is insuperable but will all take time. It is difficult to predict how soon this will happen, but the Minister of Transport, Ms Barbara Creecy, told the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee, which sat recently, that she expected implementation to commence before year end, but to run into the new year.

The reform aligns with other major reforms taking place in the logistics sector, such as the unbundling of Transnet Freight Rail in order to create Transnet Rail Infrastructure Manager as a more independent regulator of the rail network and a separate Transnet Freight Rail Operating Company. All of this aligns with Government’s policy to invite greater private sector participation, but not to sell off the family’s silver by disposing of the infrastructure itself. This remains with Government.

Although reform is taking time, it now appears to have reached the stage where one can describe it as irreversible. This bodes well for the economy going forward.