Supply Chain
When Transport Costs Rise, Where Does the Extra Cost Go?
Published
1 month agoon
By
SCN Africa
When fuel prices rise, the first cost most businesses notice is the fuel bill. For companies moving goods around South Africa, however, that is only the beginning.
Transport sits underneath almost every part of the supply chain. Raw materials have to reach factories, finished products have to reach warehouses, goods have to move between distribution centres and retailers need stock delivered to their stores.
That means an increase in fuel costs can work its way through several stages before a product reaches the customer.
The Competition Commission’s latest Cost of Living Report highlights just how significant that pressure has become. Petrol prices increased by 26% between January and July 2026, with higher fuel and transport costs adding to production, logistics and distribution costs across the economy.
So where does that extra cost actually go?
It Starts With the Truck
For a transport operator, higher fuel prices are an immediate operating cost.
A truck still has to travel the same distance, carry the same load and use roughly the same amount of fuel. If diesel becomes more expensive, the cost of making that journey increases.
Fuel is not the only cost involved. Trucks also require maintenance, tyres, insurance, drivers and financing. But fuel is one of the costs most directly affected by changes in international oil markets and local fuel pricing.
Transport companies therefore have to decide how much of an increase they can absorb and how much needs to be reflected in their rates.
That is where the cost starts moving through the wider supply chain.
The Raw Material has to Get There Too
Consider a manufacturer producing a food product.
Before anything reaches the factory, ingredients, packaging and other materials may have travelled considerable distances. Those goods could have been transported from farms, processors, ports, importers or other manufacturers.
Higher transport costs can therefore appear before production has even started.
The manufacturer then has its own transport requirements. Finished goods need to leave the factory and move to a warehouse, distribution centre or directly to a customer.
The same fuel increase can consequently affect a product more than once as it moves through the network.
That is one reason why transport costs cannot be viewed in isolation.
Warehouses Don’t Make the Problem Disappear
It is easy to think of a warehouse as the point where transport temporarily stops.
In reality, goods may enter and leave a warehouse several times before reaching their final destination.
A product could arrive from a manufacturer, be stored, moved to another distribution centre and then delivered to a retailer. Each movement involves transport.
Warehousing itself also has costs, including electricity, labour, equipment and property. But transport remains part of the equation whenever goods need to be moved in or out.
For businesses operating large distribution networks, even relatively small increases in the cost of each journey can add up quickly.
Then the Product Reaches the Retailer
By the time a product arrives at a shop, its journey may already have involved several transport legs.
That does not mean the retailer simply adds every additional transport cost to the shelf price.
Businesses have different margins and different levels of bargaining power. Some may absorb part of the increase. Others may negotiate new prices with suppliers or transport providers. Some costs may be spread across a large number of products.
The important point is that there is no single point where a fuel-price increase becomes a retail-price increase.
It moves through a network of commercial decisions.
That is why two products can be affected differently by the same increase in fuel costs.
Distance Matters
The impact is also not the same for every business.
A manufacturer located close to its customers may have a very different transport profile from one that relies on long-distance road freight.
A retailer supplied from a nearby distribution centre faces different costs from one receiving stock from hundreds of kilometres away.
The same applies to imported goods. Products arriving through a South African port may still need to travel significant distances by road or rail before reaching a warehouse or customer.
The further a product has to travel, and the more times it has to be moved, the more opportunities there are for transport costs to influence the overall cost of getting it to market.
Not Every Increase Reaches the Customer Immediately
There is another reason the relationship between fuel and prices is more complicated than it first appears.
Businesses do not necessarily change their prices every time fuel moves.
A transport contract may have a fixed period. A manufacturer may have already purchased its inputs. A retailer may have stock sitting in a warehouse that was transported under an earlier cost structure.
This creates a delay between a change in transport costs and its eventual effect elsewhere in the supply chain.
It can also work in reverse.
When fuel costs fall, businesses may not immediately reduce prices because other costs have changed, contracts have not yet been renegotiated or existing stock was purchased when transport was more expensive.
The Competition Commission has raised concerns about this pattern in several essential markets, noting that some prices can rise quickly when costs increase but fall more slowly when those costs decline.
The Cost Doesn’t Always Stop With Transport
This is where the bigger supply-chain picture becomes important.
A transport cost increase can affect more than the price of moving a product.
If logistics becomes more expensive, businesses may reconsider how frequently they replenish stock, how much inventory they hold, which suppliers they use or where warehouses are located.
A manufacturer might look for a supplier closer to its factory. A retailer might review delivery routes. A logistics operator might try to improve vehicle utilisation to make each trip more productive.
In other words, rising transport costs can change decisions throughout the supply chain, not simply the price charged for a truck journey.
Can Businesses Reduce The Impact?
They cannot control the international oil price, but they can control how efficiently they use transport.
Better route planning can reduce unnecessary kilometres. Higher vehicle utilisation can spread the cost of a journey across more goods. Better load planning can reduce the number of trips required.
The same applies to the wider network.
If a business can source some products closer to its customers, reduce empty return journeys or position stock more strategically, it may be able to reduce the amount of transport required in the first place.
These decisions become more important when fuel prices are high.
The Question Isn’t Just What Transport Costs
South Africa’s latest fuel-price shock is a useful reminder that transport is woven into almost every part of the economy.
The question for businesses is therefore not simply “How much more will our trucks cost?”
It is “How much more will it cost to move everything our business needs, and how many times will those goods have to move before they reach the customer?”
That is a much bigger calculation.
For supply-chain managers, the answer may involve changing routes, suppliers, warehouse locations, delivery schedules or inventory strategies.
For consumers, the eventual impact may simply appear as a higher price on the shelf.
Between those two points is an entire supply chain — and that is where the extra cost goes.
You may like
Logistics
Efficiency, Electrification and Intelligence Set to Shape New Era of Road Transport
Published
2 days agoon
October 13, 2026By
SCN Africa
South Africa’s road transport industry is entering a period of significant change, with rising operating costs, new energy technologies and rapid advances in digitalisation placing greater emphasis on efficiency, vehicle productivity and lifecycle costs. For truck and trailer body builder Serco, these trends are shaping both its view of the market and its innovation priorities for 2027.
Serco CEO Clinton Holcroft believes the next phase of commercial vehicle development will be increasingly influenced by the following interconnected themes: reducing vehicle weight and improving efficiency, the gradual adoption of alternative energy vehicles and the greater use of data and artificial intelligence (AI) to improve vehicle performance and uptime.
“Transporters ultimately need vehicles that carry the maximum productive payload, are reliable, cost-effective to operate and spend as little time as possible off the road,” said Holcroft. “The technologies are changing, but those fundamental customer requirements remain the same,” said Holcroft.
He said 2026 was proving to be a demanding one for the logistics industry, with sharply higher diesel costs adding further pressure to already competitive operating conditions. “Serco has seen transporters respond by extending the operating life of existing equipment and placing increased emphasis on maintenance, reliability and vehicle utilisation. Fuel pressures intensified towards the latter part of the year with South African diesel prices rising sharply again in October, adding further impetus to the industry’s search for greater operating efficiency,” said Holcroft.
Despite the difficult environment, Serco achieved marginal year-on-year improvement, recording more than 8% growth in repair sales, while continuing to broaden its dry-freight product offering and customer base.
The company also placed particular emphasis on reducing customer downtime. Its Johannesburg facility was expanded during the year, adding capacity for both after-sales repairs and new-body manufacturing, with further improvements to the facility and layout under review.
“In a difficult operating environment, keeping existing equipment productive becomes increasingly important,” said Holcroft. “Our focus has therefore not only been on manufacturing new vehicles but also on improving the speed and efficiency of our repair services to help customers reduce downtime.”
Holcroft expects the drive towards lower tare weight and improved aerodynamics to accelerate, regardless of the vehicle’s power source.
The benefit for a conventional fleet is the potential for improved payload and fuel efficiency. For battery-electric vehicles, weight becomes particularly important because body specification needs to balance payload, durability and vehicle range.
Serco has already started applying lightweight construction principles to truck bodies built for electric vehicles (EVs) introduced into the South African market this year.
“With electric vehicles, every kilogram becomes increasingly important. The challenge for body builders is not simply to make a body lighter. It is to reduce weight intelligently while maintaining the strength, durability and practicality customers expect.”
Serco therefore forecasts continued development in areas including composite materials, high-strength lightweight steels, aluminium construction and aerodynamic body design. The company plans to further develop its EV body range during 2027 while continuing research into materials and designs capable of reducing tare without compromising durability.
Holcroft believes electric commercial vehicles will become increasingly relevant to selected South African transport applications as vehicle choice expands and the commercial case improves.
However, Holcroft cautions that adoption will not happen overnight. “Electric trucks need to make operational and commercial sense for the fleet. Range, payload, charging infrastructure, vehicle utilisation, support and total cost of ownership – all have to be considered. As those elements improve, we expect more transporters to evaluate where EVs can fit successfully into their operations.”
Serco expects its role to remain centred on helping operators extract maximum value from whichever vehicle platform they select by developing bodies that combine low tare weight, durability, load-carrying capability and practical operating features.
Another major development Holcroft sees gathering momentum is the convergence of trailers, telematics, sensors and AI.
Trailers are already increasingly capable of generating operational information through technologies such as real-time load monitoring, tyre-pressure monitoring, temperature tracking and door-opening alerts. Serco sees the next opportunity as converting more of this information into actionable insight, including proactive maintenance and fleet optimisation.
“The opportunity is for the trailer to evolve from simply being an asset that carries freight into an intelligent asset that provides operators with useful information about its condition and operation.”
Serco is currently evaluating new features using telematics and sensors to support proactive trailer maintenance as well as camera technologies aimed at reducing vehicle damage during docking and unloading operations.
AI could also increasingly influence the engineering process. Serco sees potential for AI-assisted tools to help engineers analyse load patterns, optimise structural designs, reduce material usage and improve stress and fatigue analysis.
Rather than positioning AI as a replacement for engineering expertise, Holcroft believes its value will lie in augmenting engineering capability and accelerating innovation.
“The exciting opportunity is combining the experience of our engineers with increasingly sophisticated digital tools. If we can design lighter and stronger products, identify maintenance requirements earlier and give fleet operators better information, technology translates into real customer value.”
Looking ahead, Serco expects trading conditions to remain challenging while fleet operators continue to manage high operating costs and ageing equipment. At the same time, the need to replace overextended vehicles should create opportunities for newer, more efficient and reliable equipment.
Against this backdrop, Serco’s priorities for 2027 will include further development of its lightweight and EV-ready body range, continued research into advanced materials, greater integration of telematics and smart technologies, further improvements in repair turnaround times, and development of the skills required for an increasingly digital and electrified transport industry.
“We don’t believe innovation should be about technology for technology’s sake,” Holcroft concluded. “For our customers, innovation must translate into better payload, lower operating costs, increased uptime, improved safety and longer asset life. That is where we see the greatest opportunity for Serco as the transport industry evolves.”

Clinton Holcroft, CEO of Serco (Pty) Ltd
Logistics
Is Your Logistics Business the One AI Recommends? A Cape Town Agency’s Numbers Say It’s Starting to Matter
Published
1 week agoon
October 6, 2026By
SCN Africa
A year ago, AI assistants sent this business no visitors. Now they do. For transport, logistics and supply chain companies, the way buyers shortlist carriers and freight partners is changing too.
IMS‘s work with Big Talk Entertainment shows how AI search is starting to influence how South African businesses are found. The lessons apply across the sector, from freight operators, couriers and clearing agents to warehousing, cold chain and supply chain software firms.
Between February and July 2026, Big Talk Entertainment recorded 28 website sessions from AI assistants such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity. Over the same period in 2025, Google Analytics 4 recorded none. The Cape Town entertainment agency worked with Johannesburg-based digital agency IMS to make its website easier for search engines and generative AI tools to find, understand and cite.
The numbers are still small, and IMS is candid about that. “The direction is what matters,” says IMS’s Chief Disruptor, Francois Vorster. “A way of finding customers that did not exist a year ago now does.”
Over the same six months, new visitors from Google search rose 67%, and people typing the website’s address directly into their browser, often a sign that someone remembers a brand, rose 87%.
Why This Matters for Logistics
Big Talk is not a logistics business, but its corporate buyers behave like yours. They research several suppliers before they make contact, and in logistics a poor choice means late deliveries and damaged stock. More of that research now starts with a question put to an AI tool, such as “Which freight forwarders handle cross-border shipments to Zambia?” or “Who offers warehousing near the Durban port?”
“Choosing a logistics, transport or supply chain partner is a high-stakes decision, so buyers research thoroughly before they request a quote, and more of that research now starts in an AI tool and not a Google search,” says Vorster. “We can’t say for certain how much of the improvement came from traditional search work and how much from the AI-focused work. What we can say is that AI tools have become a measurable new source of visitors for a business that had none a year ago.”
What IMS Did
IMS combined traditional search work with making the business easier for AI tools to find and recommend: improving the website’s technical foundations, rewriting pages to answer the questions customers ask, and keeping the business’s details consistent everywhere AI tools look.
For a logistics business, that means clearly explained services, current coverage areas and routes, fleet and capabilities, licences and certifications, and answers to common shipper questions.
“A few years ago, nobody asked ChatGPT to recommend a band for their wedding. Now many people do,” says Deon Schlebusch, Managing Director of Big Talk Entertainment. “We are not walking away from the channels that have always worked for us, but we’d be foolish to ignore a new one that’s starting to send us business leads.”
A Word of Caution
The results come from Big Talk’s own analytics, comparing 1 February to 31 July 2026 with the same period in 2025. Because traditional and AI-focused work ran together, the growth cannot be credited to the AI work alone, and any link between AI recommendations and direct visits cannot be proven from the data. “We would rather show what we can actually measure than overclaim,” says Vorster.
Logistics businesses should also make sure claims about coverage, transit times, licences and safety records are accurate and verifiable, because buyers rely on what AI tools tell them.
What is GEO?
Generative Engine Optimisation, or GEO, is the practice of making a business easier for AI tools to find and recommend. Where SEO is about ranking on Google, GEO is about being the answer an AI tool gives.
The full case study is available at https://imsolutions.co.za/news/big-talk-entertainment/

Francois Vorster, IMS Chief Disruptor

Deon Schlebusch, Managing Director of Big Talk Entertainment
Press Releases
South Africa’s Green Hydrogen Push Could Build a New Industrial Supply Chain
Published
4 weeks agoon
September 16, 2026By
SCN Africa
South Africa’s green hydrogen ambitions are becoming less about producing another energy source and more about building an industrial base around it.
Speaking at the Africa Green Hydrogen Summit in Cape Town, Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau said government views green hydrogen as part of a broader industrialisation agenda, alongside sustainable aviation fuel, green chemicals, green shipping fuels, advanced manufacturing and new export industries.
For South Africa’s supply-chain industry, that distinction matters.
The opportunity is not simply to produce hydrogen and send it overseas. It is to develop the infrastructure, manufacturing capacity and supporting industries needed to produce, move and use it.
Building an Industry Around Hydrogen
Green hydrogen does not exist in isolation. Producing it at scale requires renewable energy, specialised equipment, infrastructure and facilities capable of handling the resulting products.
That creates potential demand across a much wider industrial network.
South Africa will need companies that can supply equipment and components, develop and maintain production facilities, provide storage and transportation solutions, and support the conversion of hydrogen into products such as green ammonia and sustainable fuels.
The more of that value chain that can be developed locally, the greater the potential economic impact.
This is central to the government’s stated industrialisation approach. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition’s green hydrogen strategy positions hydrogen alongside other industries that could help South Africa move further up the value chain and export more value rather than raw resources.
Investment is Beginning to Move
There are already signs that the infrastructure behind the sector is starting to take shape.
Through the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan programme management office at the Industrial Development Corporation, government has identified 24 strategic integrated projects, several of which have already reached the pre-feasibility stage. The projects are backed by €40 million from Germany’s KfW Development Bank.
In August, Climate Fund Managers closed the first R3 billion of the South Africa Green Hydrogen Fund. A further R628 million in grants has also been made available through the European Union’s Global Gateway programme.
Of that funding, R490 million is intended to leverage investment in hydrogen infrastructure, with government projecting that it could mobilise a further R10 billion. Another R138 million is intended to help Transnet green its own operations.
These investments matter because an industrial supply chain cannot develop around projects that remain disconnected from the infrastructure needed to support them.
Six Projects Move the Sector Closer to Implementation
The scale of the opportunity is becoming clearer as government moves its first six priority projects forward.
Announced on 15 September, the first wave covers several parts of the green hydrogen value chain, including sustainable aviation fuel, green ammonia, lower-emissions iron and steel, green methanol and domestic hydrogen demand.
The Phelan Green Group electro-Sustainable Aviation Fuel project in Saldanha Bay has reached a final investment decision after securing an off-take agreement and a $100 million equity commitment. Construction is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2027, with first exports targeted for the first quarter of 2029.
The other five projects are at different stages of development. The Coega Green Ammonia Project has completed early preparatory work but requires further commercial, technical and financing work before reaching a final investment decision. The Saldanha Hydrogen Direct Reduced Iron Project is at pre-feasibility stage, while the Prieska Power Reserve is at development stage.
The Green e-Fuels Producers Green Methanol Corridor is at pre-feasibility stage and is targeting European demand, while Green Hydrogen Solutions, which is focused primarily on South African demand, has completed front-end engineering design.
The significance for supply chains is that these projects extend beyond hydrogen production itself. Government says the wider green hydrogen economy should support industries including fertiliser, green iron and steel, sustainable fuels, equipment, engineering and related services. The full announcement on South Africa’s first six priority green hydrogen projects provides more detail on their respective stages.
That means a successful hydrogen economy could require an entire network of businesses and infrastructure around it.
Coega Could Provide a Glimpse of What Comes Next
One project that illustrates this approach is the Coega Green Ammonia Project, which government has identified as South Africa’s lighthouse green hydrogen project.
Through the Critical Infrastructure Programme Fund, the dtic is supporting Hive Hydrogen in developing the project. Hive Hydrogen has completed financial due diligence, unlocking R12.5 million of an initial R25 million in project-development funding, with a further R25 million funding application expected at financial close.
The importance of projects such as this extends beyond the production facility itself.
A large-scale green ammonia operation requires connections to energy infrastructure, industrial facilities, storage, transport and ultimately domestic or international customers. Each connection creates another part of the supply chain that needs to function effectively.
The Opportunity Goes Beyond Exports
South Africa has significant potential to become an exporter of green hydrogen-related products, but an export strategy on its own would leave much of the potential value outside the country.
The broader industrialisation approach creates another possibility.
Green hydrogen could support the development of industries that manufacture equipment, process raw materials, produce chemicals and fuels, and provide specialised technical and logistics services.
That could create a more complex industrial ecosystem in which companies supply one another rather than simply extracting resources and shipping them elsewhere.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has also called for greater local procurement, manufacturing, employment and skills transfer, arguing that Africa should participate across the hydrogen value chain as an owner, manufacturer, technology partner and producer. His announcement on the first wave of green hydrogen projects sets out the government’s position on local participation in the sector.
Government says South Africa’s industrial transition pathways point to tens of thousands of additional jobs and billions of rand in economic activity over the years ahead. These are projections rather than outcomes, but they highlight the scale of the ambition.
The Supply Chain Will Determine How Much Value Stays Here
Turning that ambition into an industrial reality will require more than funding individual hydrogen projects.
Renewable energy needs to reach production facilities. Equipment needs to be manufactured or imported and delivered. Hydrogen and its derivatives need to be stored and transported. Ports and export infrastructure need to handle new products. Manufacturers need reliable access to energy and inputs, while customers need a dependable route to market.
That makes coordination critical.
South Africa’s green hydrogen opportunity is therefore also a supply-chain opportunity. The country is not simply deciding whether it can produce green hydrogen. It is beginning to build the network of industries and infrastructure that could determine how much value that hydrogen creates before it leaves the country.
The success of the sector may ultimately be measured not by how much hydrogen South Africa produces, but by how much industrial activity develops around it.
ADVERTISEMENT
FNB and Wesbank Renew On The Road Partnership as Road Freight Podcast Surges Past 300,000 Views and 7,000 Youtube Subscribers
Port of Saldanha Secures R6.9bn Industrial Investment Pipeline
Efficiency, Electrification and Intelligence Set to Shape New Era of Road Transport
Trending
-
Management3 months agoSEO, AEO, GEO and SEO for AI: What Is the Difference for the Supply Chain Industry?
-
Transport4 months agoLDV T60 Max vs GWM P500 vs Isuzu D-Max vs Toyota Hilux vs Ford Ranger: Which Double-Cab Bakkie Offers the Best Value?
-
Logistics4 months agoDHL Group to invest around € 160 million in 2026-2027 to strengthen logistics infrastructure and support clean energy transition in France
-
Logistics4 months agoTop 5 Warehousing and Logistics Companies in the Western Cape by Google Review Rating
-
Logistics4 months agoDHL Expands Asia Pacific Data Center Logistics Capabilities to Support Growing Regional Demand
-
Logistics4 months agoTop 10 Warehousing and Logistics Companies in Gauteng by Google Review Rating
-
Freight Forwarding4 months agoThe Hidden Cost of Shipping from China to South Africa — What Every SA Importer Needs to Know in 2026
-
Logistics3 months agoTop 4 Lift Truck Companies in Gauteng
